Chance Of NT Cyclone 'Moderate'
A tropical low in the central Arafura Sea is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to coastal communities in the northern NT from the middle of this week, between Croker Island and Cape Wessel.
There is a moderate (20-50%) chance of the tropical low developing into a tropical cyclone.
The current likely track shows the system may reach a maximum intensity of category 2 before crossing the coast on Thursday, and as it is quite a small system, it could intensify or change direction quite quickly.
Current projections show the system may make landfall near the coastal community of Maningrida on Thursday with the area of highest risk stretching along the northern NT coast.
Darwin is outside of the area of highest risk and is currently expected to experience between 30-50mm of rain after the system crosses the coast later this week.
Maningrida and surrounds may receive between 100-200mm of rain and strong, gusty, squally winds from late on Wednesday.
The predicted rain and winds are expected to occur regardless of if the system develops into a cyclone.
Tropical cyclone outlooks are updated here: http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/tcoutlook.shtml